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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.